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US Indices

SP500 – Daily Analysis

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Daily Nasdaq Open Articles SP500
1236

No surprises from the index today. Let’s take a closer look and refine the target range.

In this SPX technical analysis, we examine the setup across multiple time frames—aligning candlestick structure, momentum, and trend with key support and resistance—to define risk, update the roadmap, and outline the highest-probability paths and targets for the next move.

CANDLES

SPX closed the day with an impressive set of bullish candles on the daily, 2D, and 3D frames. Short-term momentum is strongly bullish, and the index needs only about 0.5% by Friday’s close to flip the weekly from bearish to bullish. The 8D frame closed with a potential bearish Hanging Man, but the candle’s bearish odds are much lower than they were two days ago—possible rejection in the next cycle.

Dow Jones and SPX are leading the pack. Nasdaq and Russell are slightly behind on the daily frame, but the 3D looks strongly bullish for all. All trends remain bullish, and the probability of a continued rally is high.

Short term: SPX — bullish
Mid term (weekly): SPX — bearish, high chance of turning bullish
Long term (15D and larger): SPX — bullish

Elliott Waves

I continue to maintain the hypothesis that waves i–ii were completed yesterday, based on several technical readings. Today, SPX may have formed waves 1–2 of iii and is about to launch (or has already launched) wave 3 of iii. If so, the week could end with impressive gains.

However, as noted yesterday, I would prefer a 0.50–0.618 retracement for wave ii, which would be healthier technically; the dashed red line marks this possibility.

Two alternative counts remain on the table: the blue count envisions a larger flat and would likely be invalidated by a new ATH, while the purple count considers an expanding ending diagonal.

Mid Term

There’s a chance the index has started wave 5 in purple, which has a slightly stronger technical foundation.

SUMMARY

SPX and the other majors have shaken off short-term bearish pressure and now show firm bullish momentum across the shorter frames. If that momentum holds, the mid-term has a strong chance to flip back to bullish on Friday.

Short term: SPX — bullish
Mid term (weekly): SPX — bearish, with a high chance of turning bullish
Long term (15D and larger): SPX — bullish

Happy Trading!

Daily Nasdaq Open Articles SP500
1236
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