Oil – Daily Analysis
The bulls’ last-minute failure yesterday was significant. Oil fell today, and we now have to look at the bigger picture. In this report, we’ll interpret the candlespeak alongside key technicals, apply Fibonacci levels and Elliott Wave context, and assess whether our mid-term path remains intact.
CANDLES
Indeed, oil’s last-minute rejection at the 50 DMA—and the resulting reduction in bullish odds on the candlestick front—was instrumental in today’s move. Oil formed strong bearish candles on the daily and 2D frames, but it became oversold on multiple hourly frames, and I’m not convinced this move will be confirmed tomorrow.
The next key close will be the weekly. If bears want to succeed, they need a close below the prior green candle’s low. Any close above it will be bullish, potentially completing a strong setup for a Rising Three Methods.
Short term: neutral, pending confirmation
Mid term: neutral, strong bullish potential
Long term: bearish, with risk of change
ELLIOTT WAVES
Mid Term
The mid-term outlook remains unchanged. Oil is currently sitting in an inflection zone, awaiting a directional signal.
Last Wave
Oil was rejected from the upper boundary and finished the day at the lower one, likely forming an impulsive wave that could be the final leg of wave (b). A decisive break above or below the flag boundary in the next two days would open a path toward the targets. Most likely, a weekly signal will be needed to confirm the direction.
Summary:
Oil is near neutral after today’s move. While the short-term candles are bearish, the technicals point differently. We’ll likely need the weekly close to gauge mid-term momentum. Bears must push the commodity about 4% lower over the next two days to keep it bearish; any close above that would be treated as bullish.
Short term: neutral, pending confirmation
Mid term: neutral, strong bullish potential
Long term: bearish, with risk of change
Happy Trading!
