Tesla – Mid Term Forecast
We last reviewed TSLA in early October, and the stock is essentially flat since. Was that time well spent in constructive consolidation, or are other, higher-odds scenarios emerging? Let’s re-evaluate and either reconfirm or adjust the prior view.
CANDLES
I’m concerned TSLA is about to record a daily 8/20-EMA bearish cross today. The last comparable cross with this technical footprint came in early 2025—followed by a roughly 55% peak-to-trough decline over the next four months. I can’t rule out a similar risk now. The next crucial checkpoint is Friday’s weekly close; a finish below last week’s low would be extremely unhealthy. Two days to go.
ELLIOTT WAVE
Long Term
The long-term chart was shared on September 26; no change.
Mid Term
A sustained move below $367.71 would invalidate the potential larger impulse up and open a path to the target rectangle, with an ideal objective near $197 by January–February 2026.
If TSLA confirms a reversal on the weekly frame this week, it could also form a strong Double Top, which would reinforce the bearish odds. A potential 45–55% drawdown remains on the table, similar to Q1 2025.
Review the Long Term Forecast on September 26, 2025.
Happy Trading!
