Baltic Dry Index – Weekly Analysis
The BDI is often viewed as a leading indicator of economic activity because changes in the index reflect supply and demand for important materials used in manufacturing. In the majority of cases, the index is well correlated with the market moves and is considered a harbinger of the Market moves.
In our updates we evaluate the index from the perspective of technical signals, candle formations, and Elliott Waves.
CANDLES
After recording a Bullish Engulfing on the weekly frame three weeks ago, BDI has been rallying as if there were no tomorrow. Most likely, the index has completed a bullish flag, best seen on the weekly chart. It is now on track to register super-bullish 50/200 and 50/100 weekly MA golden crosses, is extending bullish momentum on the monthly frame, and has a very solid prospect of forming a Double Bottom on the quarterly frame by the end of December. Despite the scare stories circulating in the media, global trade remains healthy, and its key indicator is increasingly bullish.
Elliott Waves
No changes to the long term EW perspective.
Summary:
The BDI has been bullish since February 2025. After a summer–early fall consolidation, the index appears set for another leg higher, likely underway for the past three weeks. Historically, markets usually—though not always—catch up with the index with roughly a one-month lag. Let’s see how global markets, including the US, react this time.
Happy Trading!
