Natural Gas – Weekly Analysis
After delivering over 50% gains following our September call, Natty took a pause this week. Is this a topping exercise or a constructive consolidation? In this Natural Gas analysis, we break down the latest candlestick structure, review the Elliott Wave counts, and track momentum to identify the highest-probability paths from here. Whether you trade Henry Hub futures, UNG, or spot, this report outlines what the current setup implies for the coming weeks—and where the key confirmation and failure levels sit.
CANDLES
Natural Gas rejected potential bearish odds on the short-term frames and closed the 15D frame with a solid bullish continuation candle. The weekly, however, was impacted by the mid-week pullback and closed neutral, signaling better chances for an extended consolidation over the next few weeks. Unless there is a significant decline next week, the monthly is on track for a bullish close, potentially as a Three White Soldiers pattern.
Short term: bullish
Mid term (weekly): neutral
Long term (monthly): bullish
Classical Pattern – Inverse Head & Shoulders
After September’s Bullish Engulfing, Natty rallied sharply in October and is now set to break out above the IHS neckline. A green November close would likely complete the pattern.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Mid Term
As I discussed in September, investors should be prepared for a 70–140% rally over the next few months/quarters. This hypothesis remains intact.
Last Wave
At the micro level, Natural Gas has not yet completed an impulse up, so a potential larger wave 4 remains on the table.
SUMMARY:
Following strong bullish closures in September and October, Natural Gas continues to maintain solid mid- and long-term momentum in November. The current corrective consolidation could extend as a larger wave 4 for another 1–2 weeks. The commodity keeps all trends bullish, and the longer-term odds remain firmly bullish.
Short term: bullish
Mid term: neutral
Long term: bullish
Happy Trading!
