Silver – Weekly Analysis
Silver made a major move on Friday — let’s see what Elliott Waves are trying to signal.
In this silver analysis, we read the candlesticks, Elliott Wave context, momentum, and key support/resistance to map the highest-probability path. We also compare silver with futures and the SLV ETF — there are subtle differences, and they could be important.
CANDLES:
I am showing the previous and current charts side by side for better context. Last week, we discussed a potential impulse as the simplest way to resolve the imbalance between the metal and its futures. Now, after Friday’s drop, both potential impulses have been invalidated due to overlaps between waves 4 and 1. The only plausible path higher at this point would be an expanding Ending Diagonal. Ideally, it would continue upward in the last week of November, close the November candle below October’s high to form a bearish Inside candle on the monthly frame, then spike at the beginning of December and sharply drop after completing the diagonal. From a candlestick-theory perspective, both instruments would also form a Triple Top.
At this point, I would not take any position until we have confirmation in either direction.
Short term: neutral
Mid term: neutral
Long term: bullish, with a high risk of flipping bearish in November
Elliott Waves
While the latest long term assessment on October 18 remains intact, we will mostly focus on the short term prospective.
Last Wave – Futures
There are several potential counts on the table.
Green. The best one. Silver possibly forms a huge WXY flat it started in the middle of October. One more lower low would make a diagonal for wave Y and resume the rally to the stratosphere.
Cyan. The most dangerous one that I outlined in the candle section. The current wave up is wave 5 for the ending diagonal, ideally completing at the beginning of December.
Red/Purple. Potential impulse down from the most recent top. As this is futures, we would have to assume that silver’s final wave was truncated. Not a very probable scenario, but possible.
Next week should bring some clarity and reduce the number of potential paths.
SLV
SLV still holds a chance for an impulse up in green until it breaks below $44.52. The wave down, however, also looks impulsive.
SUMMARY
Silver is neutral overall, and I expect the metal to resolve several puzzles in both candles and waves by the end of November. A clear directional signal is needed, and it likely will not emerge until the wave structures align across all silver-tracking instruments.
The long-term outlook remains bullish, but it is fragile, as the monthly close can bring a bearish surprise. We should also remember how extremely overbought silver was on multiple frames — see the study from October 11.
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