Nasdaq – Weekly Analysis
If you read the previous reports on Russell and Dow Jones, Nasdaq is different. Why? Let’s dig deeper. This Nasdaq analysis focuses on the latest signals, highlights any adjustments to the roadmap, and outlines the probabilities for what comes next. We’ll read the candles and combos, check trend alignment across key moving averages, and evaluate momentum and Elliott Waves to separate noise from signal.
CANDLES
If Russell and Dow Jones formed rather strong reversal signals, Nasdaq is clearly a laggard. On the daily frame, it managed only a bullish Harami and barely held the 100 DMA. Now Nasdaq needs a super-rally for confirmation and to build momentum — and that will be challenging, as the weekly confirmed a top and the 15D frame printed a Bearish Engulfing. While the weekly and longer-term trends are still bullish, the risk is real. If bulls don’t wake up next week (which is shorter than usual), a monthly Bearish Engulfing will become a serious threat.
Another issue is index alignment. Russell and Dow enter the week with primarily bullish odds. Nasdaq — and SP500 as well — are leaning bearish and require significant effort to flip the trend. I hope Monday/Tuesday will bring clarity.
Short term: bullish, needs confirmation
Mid term: bearish
Long term: bullish, with risk of reversal at the end of November
Statistical Analysis
The long term statistical analysis posted on the last day of May remains intact. The question is where wave 1 is going to end and wave 2 starts.
Elliott Waves
Mid Term
The current wave down could be wave 4, and it still has room for additional downside. It could also be wave A of (2) in red. At the moment, the indicators better support the green scenario.
Possible Flag
At the beginning of November, I discussed a potential flag for Nasdaq. The index extended the pattern and has likely formed a larger flag. A strong break below the lower boundary will be bearish, while a move above the upper boundary will be bullish. I think the index has a better chance of making another low as part of confirming the Harami before completing the flag.
SUMMARY
After closing October with solid bullish continuation candles, Nasdaq remains long-term bullish. However, this stance could change next week if the index forms a strong Bearish Engulfing on the monthly frame. The mid-term frames have already shifted to the bearish side. The only ray of hope is Friday’s daily close, which flipped the short-term odds in favor of the bulls, though it still requires confirmation. The decision will likely be made in the next few days, as momentum should clearly reveal which side has stronger support.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the structure is relatively straightforward: the wave down is clearly corrective, potentially a flag. This implies that a new ATH is coming, possibly sooner rather than later.
Will Russell and Dow serve as harbingers for the entire market — including Nasdaq — this time? I hope to have the answer next week.
Happy Trading!
