Baltic Dry Index – Monthly Analysis
The BDI is often viewed as a leading indicator of economic activity because changes in the index reflect supply and demand for key materials used in manufacturing. In most cases, it is well correlated with the market and is considered a harbinger of broader market moves.
In our updates, we evaluate the index through technical signals, candlestick formations, and Elliott Wave structures.
CANDLES
As expected, BDI closed November with a strong bullish continuation pattern — a Rising Three Methods. The odds for a long-term expansion in global trade are very strong. While a tactical pullback or a period of consolidation over the next few weeks or even months is possible, as the weekly frame suggests, the index remains on track to complete a very long-term Double Bottom and to register bullish signals not seen since 2002 — a topic we’ll cover in the annual analysis.
Despite the scare stories and big shorts circulating in the media, global trade remains healthy, and its key indicator continues to turn increasingly bullish.
Elliott Waves
No changes to the long term EW perspective.
Summary:
The BDI has been bullish since February 2025. After a summer–early fall consolidation, the index is now developing a strong leg higher. Historically, markets usually — though not always — catch up to the index with roughly a one-month lag. This time, the broader market seems right on schedule.
If the index avoids a double-digit decline in December, the closure of the super-long frames will be spectacular.
Happy Trading!
