Dollar Index – Monthly Review
The U.S. Dollar (DXY) continues to follow our long-term roadmap — and November’s close has added several new signals. One of them has not appeared since the last century. In this report, we will evaluate the potential impacts across different frames from multiple angles, using our core analytical tools.
CANDLES
The Dollar Index did not confirm a bottom on the monthly frame, but it also did not negate the strong Bullish Engulfing formed in July. I think DXY may still establish an even more solid bottom, and while the possibility of one more low cannot be excluded, its probability appears relatively small.
The Dollar continues to gradually strengthen its bullish case. A 50/200 daily MA golden cross looks inevitable in early December, and the weekly 8/20 EMA spread continues to widen. The most noteworthy development, however, is the 50/200 quarterly MA golden cross, which DXY is almost certain to record on December 31. Although hard data is limited, the previous cross of this magnitude likely occurred in the late 1970s or early 1980s and was followed by an enormous rally that carried the Dollar to 164.720. Whether history will rhyme remains an open question.
Overall, the Dollar is bullish-neutral.
ELLIOTT WAVES
No changes to the long term, just a refreshed chart.
Road Map
The wave off the bottom is not impulsive, but it could be forming a Leading Diagonal. At this stage, the structure is still developing, and additional data is needed.
SUMMARY
The Dollar closed November with a neutral candle. The signals are mixed, but the overall stance is bullish-neutral. Technicals continue to build a bullish case, while the Elliott Wave structure is not yet decisive. There is still a chance that DXY may further solidify its bottom — for example, by forming an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern.
Short term: bearish
Mid term: neutral
Long term: bullish-neutral
Happy Trading!
DXY Annual Review:
https://investingangles.com/2023/12/30/dollar-index-annual-review-dxy-dxy-usd-forex-elliottwave-gold-silver/
