Wheat – Monthly Analysis
In this report, we’ll analyze the November close from several angles—candlesticks, Elliott Waves, and technicals—and assess whether wheat will continue along our projected path or whether an update is warranted.
CANDLES
In November, wheat strengthened its technical foundation for a continued rally and closed the month with a confirmed bottom on the monthly frame. The recent correction is either complete or very close to completion.
Overall, wheat remains long-term bullish.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Long Term
There is a strong chance that wheat has finally found its bottom at the most probable level we identified back in August 2022.
Mid Term
(As discussed in August – just refreshed the chart)
There is a possibility that wheat has completed a humongous Ending Diagonal, the same structure I’ve been tracking since August. The possible target from here — in an aggressive counter-move — is roughly a double in price.
Short Term
Wheat completed wave (i) as a clean impulse. Wave (ii) has retraced nearly half of wave (i) and can be considered complete. Wave (iii) would be the next stage.
SUMMARY:
Wheat likely formed a strong bottom in a very aggressive manner and then moved impulsively upward. At least one more wave in that direction is expected once the current correction is complete. So far, the signals point to a significant rally. The commodity is bullish in the long term, and if the October–November momentum carries through December, the year-end prints could be exceptional.
Happy Trading!
============================================================
