Bitcoin – Monthly Analysis

CANDLES

It looks like Bitcoin is approaching the end of the year while building some most bearish combos on the large frames on the record. The November monthly candle confirmed a long term bearish reversal. The 15D look terrible. The weekly likely formed a Three Black Crows. The short term frames are trying to master a reversal, but it is likely just a bounce. The quarterly and semiannual frames are shaping ugly for December 31.

The short term is moderately bullish, but the weekly and larger frames are strong bearish and these odds can trigger a move downward any moment.

Elliott Waves

Very Long Term

From a helicopter view, the coin is in a risky position. A move below $69,000 would invalidate the all-time impulsive structure—the green count—and force us to treat the current wave as wave (2) in red. In my view, this would be one of the most disappointing developments in the crypto universe.

Last Wave

So far, the coin has not formed a larger-degree impulse off the top — the move that would correspond to wave (A) on the all-time chart. If BTC remains below $98,898 and makes a new lower low, such an impulse would almost guarantee that the correction will extend for at least a few more years. A break above $98,898 would invalidate the impulsive scenario and lead us to treat the current wave up as wave B, given its clearly corrective characteristics. Under classical timing, a wave B could develop into late January or beyond.

As discussed in October, “broadly, Bitcoin (and crypto more generally) may be facing a substantial drawdown into late 2025, with the bear market potentially extending into 2026.” This evaluation still stands.

Happy Trading!