Volatility – Quick Update

In this brief VIX update, we examine the evolving candlestick structures across several volatility-tracking instruments and reassess the Elliott Wave outlook discussed in recent reports. In light of today’s FED decision, this review helps clarify whether the underlying volatility dynamics support continuation of the current trend or signal an approaching inflection point. Taken together, these multi-frame observations provide a more rigorous basis for interpreting near-term risk.
CANDLES
Daily

While VIX and VIX-tracking instruments were attempting to form green candles earlier today, the FED’s announcement flipped them red and, barring any late-day volatility, VIX SP500, VIX US, and VIXY will close with strong Bearish Engulfing candles. VX futures experienced a contract rollover and initially spiked higher, but the candle is shaping as a bearish Hammer so far.
Ending Diagonal


VX has a chance to form a significant impulse downward, with wave 5 potentially unfolding through the remainder of December.
As discussed in the weekly report, the index remains bearish until it reverses on at least the weekly frame.
Happy Trading!