Silver – Daily Update
Yesterday we discussed the rare technical event on Monday, December 15. All prints are now in, and the moment can be evaluated.
Multiple forces converged into a single decision point, with timing that was anything but random.
What silver revealed here is likely to shape the path ahead.
CANDLES:
I cannot say that silver bears were impressive today. They failed to confirm Friday’s bearish attack and only managed to form a bearish Harami on the 2D frame. All other frames closed with green candles of varying strength. The common weakness—and a potential threat—is the extreme overbought condition across virtually all frames. The monthly RSI has already climbed to levels not seen since 1980.
As discussed earlier, “the (developing) monthly candle is another concern. November closed above October’s high, and December opened with an additional push higher. At the end of October, I highlighted the risk of an ‘unhealthy’ November close if it exceeded October’s high, and that outcome has now materialized. The December candle currently sits entirely above the Bollinger Bands—an extreme condition that historically does not go unpunished. There have been only three such instances in silver’s recorded history, and each led to a significant multi-year decline of roughly 40–60%. I plan to conduct a statistical review once December’s candle is finalized.”
At this point, silver is neutral in the short term, while the larger frames remain bullish.
It is worth noting that, in previous extreme cases, top formation often unfolded over several weeks or even months.
Elliott Waves
I continue to expect another wave downward following the initial impulse. The key question is whether it escapes with the blue path or attempts to develop a larger impulse down in red, which would be extremely painful.
SUMMARY
Silver did not recover from Friday’s bearish signal and extended bearish odds on the 2D frame; both remain unconfirmed. At this point, the metal is neutral in the short term, while the larger frames remain bullish but grossly overbought. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the possibility of forming a significant top remains firmly on the table.
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