Live Trade in 2025 – Results

2025 Market Snapshot

QQQ: 20.16%
SPY: 16.35%
DIA: 12.94%
IWM: 11.40%

Magnificent Seven — 2025 Returns

Google: 64.78%
NVIDIA: 38.88%
Microsoft: 14.74%
Meta: 12.74%
Tesla: 11.36%
Apple: 8.56%
Amazon: 5.21%

The equal-weighted average return of the seven was about 22.3%.
The market-cap-weighted return was around 24%, largely driven by Google and NVIDIA.

In theory, perfectly holding all seven throughout the year would not outperform QQQ by much. In reality, very few investors can hold all seven consistently without timing errors, uneven capital deployment, or behavioral mistakes. Holding QQQ is far easier, cleaner, and far more realistic.

Once timing risk, capital allocation risk, and behavioral bias are introduced, the probability that partial holdings of the Magnificent Seven outperform QQQ approaches zero, excluding survivorship bias. If even the strongest stocks in the market behave this way, the odds of most stock-picking strategies beating the index are even lower unless concentration and discipline are extreme.

From a risk-adjusted and capital-efficiency perspective, QQQ continues to dominate discretionary stock selection.

That said, disciplined systems can outperform. In 2025, our live trading system significantly outperformed QQQ through strict execution and systematic discipline, ideally implemented within tax-advantaged accounts. Since inception in January 2023, the system has delivered a non-leveraged cumulative return of 112%, compared to approximately 70% for the S&P 500 over the same period. This has now continued for three years and remains intact going forward.

As Einstein said, compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. Those who understand it earn it. Those who do not pay for it.

True investing is full participation plus exponential compounding plus time and patience. Low turnover and low emotional involvement matter far more than brilliance.

Personal reflection.
Happy New Year!

David,
the Live Room Captain