Lithium – Annual Review
Members who followed our long call on lithium on August 17 are now sitting on gains of roughly 50%. With 2025 in the rearview mirror, the key question is whether this move is ready to pause—or if lithium still has room to run. In this forecast, we analyze the latest technical signals, candlestick patterns, and Elliott Wave structure to determine whether profits should be protected or higher prices remain the higher-probability path for the lithium market.
CANDLES
LIT closed 2025 with firmly constructive signals across the 2- to 12-month frames. All trends from the daily through the annual remain bullish, likely reflecting strengthening underlying demand. While the weekly and monthly signals lean closer to neutral, the long- and very-long-term probabilities remain decisively bullish.
Statistical Call – 50/100 WMA Golden Cross
In November 2025, following the weekly 50/100 MA golden cross, I ran a statistical study on this rare signal, which has occurred only a handful of times historically. All projections from that analysis remain intact, and the metal has added approximately 6.5% since the November 1 call.
ELLIOTT WAVES
There are no material developments on the Elliott Wave front. Short-term waves continue to advance as potential extensions with impulsive characteristics, while pullbacks remain corrective in nature.
From a longer-term perspective, the current advance can be interpreted either as wave (3) of a higher-degree impulse or as wave C of a broad corrective structure. The technical footprint is effectively identical in both cases, so I continue to track the scenarios in parallel. Importantly, the typical targets for each path overlap around the $135 area, which also aligns well with the average statistical target implied by the weekly 50/100 WMA golden cross.
Summary
While lithium appears somewhat softer on the monthly and smaller frames and may experience a drawdown early in 2026, this would be consistent with a corrective phase rather than a structural change. Short-term weakness would not be unexpected given the strong advance already in place and the neutral tone of recent weekly and monthly signals.
From a broader perspective, the long-term setup remains firmly bullish. Trends from the daily through the annual are still aligned to the upside, long-term statistical projections tied to the weekly 50/100 MA golden cross remain intact, and the Elliott Wave structure continues to favor higher prices over time. Until the technicals and trend alignment signal otherwise, lithium remains in a long-term bullish regime, with any early-2026 softness better viewed as consolidation than reversal.
Happy Trading!
