Uranium – URA – Annual Review

CANDLES

URA is a relatively young instrument, and several very long-term indicators are still in the process of developing. Even so, the annual close was exceptional. URA gained approximately 62% in 2025 on an open-to-close basis, yet the annual RSI finished near 25—deep in oversold territory—while momentum has only just begun to build. Opportunities of this nature are exceedingly rare. Based on the annual frame alone, URA has a realistic chance to traverse to the upper end of its long-term range, potentially driving prices into triple-digit territory and implying a doubling or better over a multi-year horizon.

Across other time frames, the picture remains supportive. The 4–9 month frames are broadly bullish, while the 1–3 month frames closed near neutral and require confirmation. Only a limited number of daily frames exhibit bearish tendencies, whereas weekly and higher trends remain bullish. Notably, both the daily and weekly frames opened the year with strong bullish signals.

Near term, URA may still be working through a recovery phase following the recent drawdown. Confirmation on the weekly and monthly frames is required to fully validate the next leg higher. Once that confirmation is in place, the technical structure would support a renewed advance toward new highs.

ELLIOTT WAVE

URA – Global Uranium ETF

Long Term

URA may have completed a major wave 4 of (3) and could now be entering wave 5 of (3). At this stage, I am displaying only moderate targets for wave 5. That said, commodities—and uranium in particular—often see fifth waves extend beyond expectations, at times even outpacing wave three. As a result, the upcoming advance could prove extremely aggressive, with the timing on the chart compressing materially.

Under such conditions, the wave could reasonably stretch into the triple-digit price area over time. The short-term wave projection shown below remains conservative for now, but it should be viewed as a baseline rather than a ceiling, especially if momentum accelerates as the structure confirms.

Summary

Uranium enters 2026 with a rare alignment of long-term opportunity and improving technical structure. Despite URA gaining more than 60% in 2025, the annual momentum profile remains deeply compressed, with the annual RSI finishing at extreme lows and only beginning to turn higher. This combination—strong price appreciation alongside deeply oversold long-term momentum—is highly unusual and suggests that the recent advance may represent an early phase of a much larger cycle rather than a mature move.

From a structural standpoint, URA may have completed a major wave 4 of (3) and could now be transitioning into wave 5 of (3). While near-term projections remain conservative, commodities frequently see fifth waves extend aggressively, often exceeding expectations in both price and speed. Weekly and higher trends are bullish, intermediate frames are stabilizing, and early-year signals point toward renewed upside once confirmation on the weekly and monthly frames is secured.

Fundamentally, this technical setup aligns well with the broader backdrop of rising uranium demand driven by nuclear restarts, new reactor construction, and long-term supply constraints. When improving demand dynamics converge with bullish long-term technicals, price moves tend to be sustained rather than fleeting. Until the structure signals otherwise, uranium appears positioned for a multi-year advance, with volatility along the way but higher prices as the dominant path.