Apple – Annual Review – ElliottWave

CANDLES

Apple ended 2025 with firmly bullish signals on the quarterly and larger time frames. The monthly chart formed a bearish Harami, introducing mildly elevated bearish odds. Early January has seen a strong bearish attempt to build momentum and potentially flip the monthly frame decisively bearish by the end of the month. However, this move shows early signs of exhaustion, suggesting diminishing follow-through from sellers. A test of the 100-day moving average support (purple line) is therefore more likely to be rejected, allowing the longer-term uptrend to reassert itself.

While continued uncertainty and elevated volatility may persist through early January and possibly into February, the quarterly and larger time-frame signals remain firmly bullish. These higher-degree structures continue to provide a supportive backdrop for the long-term bullish outlook.

Elliott Wave

Long Term

There is no significant signal that would alter the long-term outlook discussed in July 2025. The current wave could be wave 5 of (5) in purple or wave 1 of (3) in blue.

Mid Term

Apple may have completed, or be very close to completing, a technically ideal zigzag for wave (iv), with wave a approximately equal to wave c. The sharp decline produced a throw-under, defined as a brief excursion below the classical trend line. Such events are often followed by a swift countertrend move, typically unfolding as wave (v) and, in classical cases, terminating with a throw-over.

If Apple forms a durable bottom in the coming days—an outcome for which early signals are emerging—wave (v) could advance by roughly 16% under a moderate scenario, or up to 25% in the case of a more extended throw-over, potentially over the course of the next quarter.

From a structural perspective, it is also worth noting that zigzags are most commonly associated with second waves. Although the present correction is relatively shallow for a full wave 2, given that typical retracements often reach the 0.50–0.618 range, this zigzag can be provisionally considered as wave 2 under the alternative red count. In that scenario, the subsequent wave 3 would be expected to be particularly strong. Technical confirmation or rejection of this alternative is likely to emerge over the next three to four weeks. Until then, the blue count remains the primary working assumption.

SUMMARY

Apple finished 2025 with solid, constructive signals across all very long-term frames, keeping the broader bullish outlook intact. While early 2026 has been volatile, the recent weakness appears corrective rather than structural and is likely approaching completion.

As noted on July 20, 2025, “It would be reasonable to anticipate Apple gaining 50–70% over the next 3–4 years, or even potentially doubling in value.” Apple advanced about 30% in the second half of 2025, then entered a shallow pullback in early 2026. So far, this pullback has respected higher-degree support and fits well within a normal consolidation inside a long-term uptrend. As a result, the stock has good chances to resume its long-term rally and potentially reach the levels discussed in July 2025 on a faster timeline.

Apple’s market impact is also significant. It is the largest weight in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, and a major component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Because of this, sustained moves in Apple often influence index-level direction and overall market momentum.

In summary, Apple’s long-term structure remains bullish, the recent pullback looks mature, and the stock is positioned to reassert leadership, with implications not only for Apple itself but for the broader equity market as well.