Gold Weekly Analysis
This weekly gold analysis focuses on evaluating the market through a disciplined technical framework. We examine candlestick structures, trend alignment, momentum behavior, and Elliott Wave context to assess how the current structure is developing. The goal is to identify what the charts are confirming—and what they are not.
Candles
This week, gold nearly recovered from last week’s large Bearish Engulfing. The daily and 2D frames continued higher and preserved their trends, but they also began to signal technical divergence.
Last week’s assessment stated: “The weekly close on January 2 printed a Bearish Engulfing supported by rare and meaningful technical confirmation. On my scale, the probability of this signal reversing the prevailing move is in the 80–85% range, with the likelihood of a multi-week drawdown estimated near 70%. The next weekly candle will be critical, as it should clarify whether this move develops into a sustained decline or stalls.”
The coming week is therefore pivotal. Gold did not fully negate the Bearish Engulfing and may have formed a bearish Stick Sandwich with neutral odds. Next Friday’s close will determine whether this formation is confirmed or rejected.
Short term: bullish
Mid term: neutral, leaning bearish
Elliott Wave
Micro Path
After a potential impulsive move downward, gold bounced back to nearly the level where the impulse began, approaching the invalidation zone for the bearish counts. A new all-time high would invalidate the red count and make the purple scenario much less probable.
Mid Term
A new all-time high would likely complete a non-overlapping ending diagonal that gold has been developing since October 2025. I continue to maintain the diagonal hypothesis due to several highly unusual wave structures that are inconsistent with a regular impulse. A potential target for completion of this wave lies in the $4,570–4,770 area.
Summary:
Gold rebounded strongly after a potential impulsive drop, retracing close to the origin of that move and approaching invalidation levels for the bearish counts. Short-term conditions remain constructive, but the market has not fully negated recent bearish signals, keeping the setup sensitive to the next weekly close.
A new all-time high would invalidate the red count and significantly reduce the probability of the purple scenario. Such a move would likely complete a non-overlapping ending diagonal that has been developing since October 2025, with a potential completion zone around $4,570–4,770.
