Gold Weekly Analysis
This weekly gold analysis focuses on evaluating the market through a disciplined technical framework. We examine candlestick structures, trend alignment, momentum behavior, and Elliott Wave context to assess how the current structure is developing. The goal is to identify what the charts are confirming—and what they are not.
Candles
On Friday, gold came very close to forming a top on the daily frame and to preserving the prior Bearish Engulfing on the weekly. However, a late-session push shifted the outcome, with the weekly closing as a bullish continuation and the daily printing a consolidating candle. As a result, higher highs next week appear likely. If momentum holds through Wednesday, the 15-day frame may invalidate the earlier Dark Cloud Cover.
Previously, the probability of a reversal following the weekly Bearish Engulfing stood at roughly 80–85% given the technical setup two weeks ago. Gold instead followed the lower-probability path, rallying on the remaining 10–15%, but at the cost of further deterioration in underlying technical conditions. The rally remains aggressive and extended.
Short term: bullish
Mid term: bullish
ELLIOTT WAVES
Mid Term
Last week, I outlined a potential target for the wave in the $4,570–4,770 area. Gold has reached this zone, but still has room to extend higher, potentially unfolding wave v of 5 and terminating in either the purple or blue target areas.
Summary:
Gold reached the previously discussed $4,570–4,770 target zone and remains capable of pushing higher, potentially completing wave v of 5 into the upper purple or blue target areas. Momentum remains bullish in the short and mid term, but the structure is becoming increasingly mature and technically stretched.
Completion of wave v of 5 would likely open the door to a major corrective phase. A retracement in the range of 0.5–0.618 of the entire rally since late October 2025 would be normal, implying a potential decline of roughly 500–600 points. The ultimate depth of the correction will depend on the character of the terminal wave and the long-term technical backdrop, which remains grossly overextended.
