Silver – Weekly Analysis
Since the latest long-term outlook issued in October 2025, silver has advanced nearly 90% and is now sitting squarely within the projected target area. The key question is whether silver has reached a point of rejection or still has room to extend significantly higher.
In this weekly report, we examine the technical backdrop behind this exceptional performance, along with the risks and complications that often emerge after moves of this magnitude.
CANDLES:
Silver failed to confirm several bearish signals and extended higher through the first half of January. So far, the setup closely mirrors the early-1980 scenario discussed in detail in the Annual Review on January 3, 2026. From a technical standpoint, silver has effectively been walking the plank for several months, with sustained trading above three standard deviations from the mean on the monthly and all larger frames, up to the annual.
At this stage, the key question is not whether a reversal will occur, but when. Candlewise, silver remains bullish until proven otherwise.
Elliott Waves
Very Long Term
The long-term Elliott Wave structure has remained largely unchanged since October 2025. The current advance, interpreted as wave 3 in red, has already extended approximately 4.0× the length of wave 1. While further upside remains possible, with the next extension target at 4.618, the probability of such an outcome is lower.
A worst-case alternative—a leading diagonal in blue—remains a possibility, although confirmation would require significantly more structural development. For now, mid- and long-term technicals continue to support the interpretation of wave 3 or wave C of V. At this stage, there is no meaningful technical distinction between these two scenarios, at least none that can be clearly identified.
Last Wave
At the micro level, silver formed an impulsive move down on January 14, a pattern last seen in October that preceded a broader corrective phase. For now, the blue and red paths remain the most probable scenarios. A new all-time high would invalidate the blue count and sharply reduce the probability of the red, likely opening the door to further upside and new highs. A resolution is likely to emerge by Tuesday or Wednesday.
SUMMARY
Silver has delivered an exceptional advance since October 2025, gaining nearly 90% and reaching the projected long-term target area. Despite repeated bearish setups, price has continued higher, closely resembling the early-1980 analogue discussed in the Annual Review. Technically, silver has been trading above +3σ on the monthly and larger frames for several months. In a normal distribution, observations beyond +3σ occur with a probability of approximately 0.135% (one-sided). This places the current condition firmly in a statistical extreme and highlights the critical and unstable nature of the zone. Candlewise, silver remains bullish until proven otherwise, but timing risk is now dominant.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the long-term structure remains intact, with the advance best interpreted as wave 3 (or wave C of V), already extended to roughly 4.0× wave 1. Further upside toward the 4.618 extension remains possible, though with reduced probability. On the micro level, the impulsive decline on January 14 introduces short-term risk, with the blue and red paths currently favored. A new all-time high would invalidate the blue count and sharply reduce bearish odds, likely opening the path to further highs. A clearer resolution is expected around Tuesday or Wednesday.
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