$META – Monthly Analysis –

Meta Platforms closed 2025 with generally bullish signals on the annual frame. The qualifier is important, as the stock’s relatively short trading history means some long-term indicators are still developing. On the 4–9 month frames, candles closed neutral but on healthy technical foundations, leaving follow-through signals to be determined over the next several months. The quarterly close attempted a bearish turn but ultimately failed, with price finding firm support at the 8 EMA—an important technical rejection of a longer-term top.

December’s monthly close was particularly telling. While the candle technically formed a Bullish Engulfing, it did so on weak technicals, signaling continued near-term pressure followed by a delayed recovery rather than an immediate trend change. That recovery now appears to be unfolding. The most recent week produced a strong Bullish Engulfing and a Tower Bottom on the 3-day frame. On the daily chart, price has reclaimed the 100 DMA and MACD has flipped bullish. Together, these developments position META for a very strong week ahead, with a realistic chance of confirming a bullish reversal on the monthly frame.

Elliott Waves

Back in June, I outlined META’s long-term outlook, which remains largely unchanged. META may have completed cycle wave IV and subsequently formed waves 1 and 2 of wave V, as marked in blue. However, until META records a new all-time high, the possibility of a larger ABC structure for wave IV, shown in red, must remain on the table. Despite this alternate scenario, the long-term targets remain intact.

Mid Term

On the mid-term scale, META may have completed waves 1 and 2 of wave V. This structure allows for forward projections of wave V using standard Elliott Wave techniques and Fibonacci ratios. If META continues to advance in an impulsive manner, the developing wave 3 alone could deliver gains on the order of 15–20%.

Looking further ahead, the full wave V has the potential to extend 35%, and possibly as much as 50%, over the next 12–18 months. Such a scenario would likely be characterized by relatively shallow and brief pullbacks, consistent with a strong impulsive phase.

SUMMARY

META is moving into an important technical phase. The long-term structure outlined in June remains intact, with the stock likely transitioning into wave V. On the mid-term scale, waves 1 and 2 of V may already be complete, setting the stage for a developing wave 3. If the advance continues impulsively, wave 3 could deliver gains of roughly 15–20%, while the full wave V could extend 35–50% over the next 12–18 months with relatively shallow pullbacks. Until a new all-time high is reached, a larger corrective alternative remains possible, but long-term targets are unchanged.

META’s strength is especially important for the Communication sector, where it carries a large weight and influence. The sector has begun to show a clear willingness to rally, and continued upside in META would materially improve the odds of sustained sector-level strength.

At the broader market level, META’s alignment with other large-cap leaders supports both the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500. While not a sole driver, META’s momentum can meaningfully reinforce index-level trends and increase the probability that recent constructive setups resolve to the upside.