Russell 2000 – Weekly Analysis
On June 9, we made a major call for Russell and outlined the potential for a powerful 30% rally over the following 5–10 months. Nearly eight months later, that roadmap has played out almost point for point, with the index advancing close to 28%. This weekly analysis reviews how that structure has evolved and evaluates the current technical condition of the index across multiple time frames.
CANDLES
Russell 2000 closed the week with predominantly bullish candles. A healthy bullish continuation on the 15-day frame, together with constructive weekly and 3-day signals, suggests that bulls remain comfortable on the mid- to long-term horizon. Friday’s sharp pullback produced a large red candle, but it failed to break the 8 EMA support, limiting the immediate technical damage.
If the index is to extend lower, it would require a clear and strong bearish confirmation over the next one to two sessions. Absent that, the broader structure remains intact. Overall, Russell is neutral in the short term and bullish on the mid- and long-term frames.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Mid Term
The current wave has begun to take on the technical characteristics of a possible wave iii of some degree, prompting adjustments to the prospective mid- and long-term wave counts.
Inverse Head & Shoulders
Back on June 9, I highlighted an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern in RUT and noted at the time: “RUT could be looking at the potential for an enormous 30% rally over the next 5–10 months.” This week, RUT is up nearly 28% from that call. While the objective could be viewed as largely achieved, there are still no strong reversal signals in place, leaving room for the index to explore higher highs.
Below is the full evolution of the charts since June, showing how the structure has progressed and how the original thesis has unfolded for the Russell 2000.
Summary:
Russell 2000 remains constructive. Since the June 9 call highlighting a large Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, the index has rallied nearly 28%, largely fulfilling the original objective. Despite this strong advance, there are no clear reversal signals at present, and recent candles continue to support a bullish continuation on the mid- to long-term frames.
Short-term conditions are more balanced following a sharp pullback that failed to break key EMA support, leaving the index neutral in the near term. Unless a strong bearish confirmation appears in the next few sessions, the broader structure suggests that Russell retains the ability to consolidate and potentially explore higher highs.
