Silver – Monthly Analysis
Who would have thought that our October 2025 long call on silver would deliver a 145% gain for those who knew when to exit, as discussed last week in our statistical analysis? The obvious question now is what comes next, and for how long.
In this monthly report, we examine the technical backdrop behind the latest exceptional move and assess the associated risks and structural complications.
CANDLES:
Statistics at work. After pushing into an almost improbable extension zone, silver reacted violently, shedding nearly one-third of its value in a single session. That move forced bearish candle outcomes across the daily, weekly, 10-day, and monthly frames, marking a decisive shift in character.
Looking ahead on the annual chart, the most probable support zones remain the 8-year and 20-year EMAs, as discussed previously. A move into those areas would imply a 62%–75% decline from the peak, well within historical norms following such extreme extensions. That said, silver is now grossly oversold after the initial liquidation, making a rebound likely. The key open questions are how large that bounce will be and whether its structure is corrective or impulsive, which will determine whether the move is merely a pause—or the start of a broader recovery.
Elliott Waves
Very Long Term
In October 2025, I projected a potential advance in silver toward 4.618× wave 1. The rally ultimately extended to 5.618×, a substantial stretch that fits well with a completed wave (3). The most typical targets for wave (4) were outlined on the chart, and price has already reached the upper boundary of that zone. This raises the possibility that wave (4) may have completed in just one session.
Under these conditions, the structure of the next advance becomes critical. A clean impulsive move from here would strongly suggest that wave (5) has begun. Conversely, a break below $49.82 would imply a broken (1–5) impulse and likely force a switch to the blue count.
Short Term
Now comes the most critical development. The decline began after a completed ending diagonal and unfolded in a sharp, impulsive manner. At a minimum, it qualifies as a clean impulse in blue, marked as wave A. If the current bounce proves to be corrective—serving as wave iv in red—silver could still extend lower to complete an even larger wave A in red.
In either case, the probability of a follow-through move in the same direction is high, consistent with the formation of an ABC structure. The focus now shifts to the structure of the ongoing bounce. How this wave develops will be key in determining the character and scope of the next move.
SUMMARY
Silver has undergone a violent regime shift after completing an ending diagonal and stretching far beyond statistically normal extension levels. The selloff that followed was sharp and impulsive, strongly suggesting that a larger corrective phase is underway. At a minimum, the decline qualifies as a clean wave A, and the probability of a continued move in the same direction to complete an ABC structure is high. From a longer-term Elliott Wave perspective, the prior advance likely completed wave (3), and silver has already reached the upper boundary of the most typical target zone for wave (4).
Given the speed of the decline, silver is now deeply oversold and a bounce is likely. However, the structure of this rebound is far more important than its size. A corrective bounce would support the case for another leg lower, while a clean impulsive advance would argue that wave (5) has already begun. Until that distinction becomes clear, risk remains elevated and silver should be treated as being in a corrective, unstable phase rather than a resumed uptrend.
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