Silver – Road Map Update
How often do you see a 40% drop in just three days? We warned about the risk barely a week before it happened. In this Road Map update, we break down the recent collapse, adjust the framework, assess the implications of the new low, and map out where silver is most vulnerable—and where it could still surprise.
:
Elliott Waves
Short Term
After today’s lower low, the blue scenario is clearly off the table. The red count now stands out as a very clean, classical impulsive move down of a significant degree—primary or intermediate. Moves like this are rare: a drop of more than 40% in just three days. What makes it more important is that the decline unfolded as an impulse. As Elliott put it: “corrections are never fives. Only motive waves are fives. For this reason, an initial five-wave movement against the larger trend is never the end of a correction, only part of it.”
That implies the next phase should be a corrective move up, likely a wave B. This wave could be complex and time-consuming, potentially lasting a long time. It would then be followed by wave C, which would complete the broader correction. In many historical cases, such wave C structures evolve as ending diagonals, stretching over years and testing patience to the extreme.
There is still a chance that wave v of impulse A is not fully complete and could extend as an ending diagonal, as marked in orange.
The initial bounce off the bottom was corrective, which supports the idea that it may be the start of wave a within a larger wave B rather than the beginning of a new bullish impulse.
Candles
Silver is bearish on both the daily and 3D frames. From a candlestick perspective, there is little more to add. At this stage, the Elliott Wave structure is doing most of the talking.
=====
