Silver – Weekly Analysis
This week, silver attempted to stabilize after a 47% decline from its all-time high. The key question now is whether this rebound marks the start of a new super bull cycle — or merely a temporary relief rally within a broader corrective phase.
In this weekly report, we analyze the technical backdrop behind this exceptional move, assess the evolving risk profile, and evaluate the structural complexities that will shape silver’s path forward.
CANDLES:
Silver continued to build bearish momentum and printed a Complete Bearish Engulfing on the 10D frame, increasing the probability of further downside on that timeframe. The daily remains in a bearish trend after losing the 50 DMA. On the weekly, however, an interesting combination has emerged — a potential Ladder Bottom — but it will require confirmation next week to carry constructive weight.
At present, silver remains bearish and is strengthening its negative momentum across the mid- to long-term frames. The next decisive signal will come from the monthly close.
Elliott Waves
Very Long Term
In the middle of January, the 49.82 watershed level seemed almost impossible to reach. Now, after a 50-point decline in just one week, the current level near 77 suddenly looks uncomfortably close to 49.82. A break below that level would invalidate the red (1–5) impulsive structure and shift the focus to the blue count, opening the door to much lower prices.
Short Term
On the short-term chart, I continue to monitor a potential 1980-style fractal, discussed in detail on February 6, with the projected blue path. At the same time, we cannot dismiss the possibility of a more classical (ABC) corrective structure unfolding in red.
SUMMARY
Silver remains technically weak, with candles and momentum providing the primary guidance. The 10D printed a Complete Bearish Engulfing, the daily lost the 50 DMA and continues in a bearish trend, and mid- to long-term momentum is still deteriorating. While the weekly may be attempting to form a potential Ladder Bottom, it requires confirmation before it can alter the broader outlook.
At this stage, price action and technical indicators dominate the narrative, and they lean bearish. Structural alternatives remain on the table, but until a clear and confirmed reversal signal emerges, candles and trend behavior continue to point toward caution.
=====
