Microsoft – Long Term Forecast
Microsoft just entered a rare and technically charged setup after today’s close. The question now is critical: has the recent downslide run its course, or is there still meaningful downside risk ahead?
In this update, we break down the full combination of signals using our proprietary tool set — integrating candlestick structures, momentum shifts, moving-average dynamics, and multi-timeframe analysis. When these elements align, they tend to reveal high-probability inflection points. Let’s examine whether Microsoft is building a base — or preparing for another leg lower.
CANDLES
Just two weeks ago, we were discussing Microsoft’s bearish posture — and price action followed through accordingly. However, the last two sessions have materially shifted the technical landscape. Microsoft has likely carved out a V-shaped bottom, confirmed a reversal on the daily frame, reclaimed the 8-day EMA, and advanced in a clearly impulsive fashion. If this momentum persists for another two sessions, the stock could complete a bullish weekly reversal candle, reinforcing the change in tone.
This potential bottom carries significance. The daily MACD has formed a bullish cross at deep never seen before levels, and the weekly RSI is emerging from oversold territory — a condition that has occurred only a handful of times in Microsoft’s history. The last weekly RSI dip below 30 in 2025 preceded a 61% rally, and prior oversold readings have led to advances in the 50–90% range.
That said, the possibility of one final marginal lower low cannot be fully dismissed. For now, MSFT has flipped strongly bullish on the daily, but confirmation on the weekly frame is still required to solidify the reversal thesis.
Elliott Wave
All Time Chart
There is a credible scenario in which wave IV has already completed, opening the door for a rally into the blue rectangle as wave V. That projection implies a potential 50–90% advance from the recent low, consistent with historical behavior following similar oversold conditions.
However, it is also possible that the recent decline represents only wave (A) of a larger wave IV correction. If that is the case, additional corrective structure would still need to unfold. The distinction between these two paths will likely become clear only with further price development.
Last Wave
SUMMARY
Microsoft has likely formed a short-term bottom, with strong potential to evolve into a weekly bottom if momentum is sustained over the next two sessions. Should this scenario be confirmed by the weekly and monthly closes on Friday, MSFT could be setting up for a powerful rally — potentially comparable to the advance seen in April–July 2025.
Given that Microsoft often acts as a harbinger for broader market moves, this development carries substantial significance. A confirmed reversal here would have meaningful implications for the broader market outlook and could materially influence related analyses.
