Microsoft – Long Term Forecast
Is Microsoft on the verge of a bullish reversal, or is it too early to call a bottom? The key question now is whether the recent decline has fully played out or if additional downside risk remains.
In this update, we analyze the complete signal mix using our proprietary framework — combining candlestick formations, momentum dynamics, moving-average signals, and multi-timeframe context. When these components align, they often highlight high-probability turning points. Let’s assess whether Microsoft is forming a durable base or setting up for another move lower.
CANDLES
Microsoft closed February with conflicting signals. The monthly and 2M frames printed bearish continuation candles but stopped precisely at major support levels. At the same time, the daily and weekly turned into mutineers, forming rare signals that often act as clear harbingers of a significant reversal. The weekly also printed a third consecutive Inside candle and failed to close at a new lower low for the third week in a row — a notable bearish failure.
While lower prices early in March remain possible, Microsoft is likely to establish at least a mid-term bottom within the next several weeks.
The previously discussed upside targets from the latest Long-Term Forecast remain intact and can be reviewed here: https://investingangles.com/v6hf.
Elliott Wave
All Time Chart
There is a credible scenario in which wave IV has already completed, opening the door for a rally into the blue rectangle as wave V. That projection implies a potential 50–90% advance from the recent low, consistent with historical behavior following similar oversold conditions.
However, it is also possible that the recent decline represents only wave (A) of a larger wave IV correction. If that is the case, additional corrective structure would still need to unfold. The distinction between these two paths will likely become clear only with further price development.
Last Wave
SUMMARY
Microsoft appears to be in the early stages of building a significant bottom. Although another marginal lower low remains possible and the long-term bias has not fully turned, the structure is increasingly suggestive of a momentum transition and the potential for a strong rally — possibly similar in character to the April–July 2025 advance.
Because Microsoft frequently acts as a bellwether for broader market direction, this setup is especially important. A confirmed reversal would carry notable implications for the overall market outlook and could meaningfully shift the broader analytical framework.
