Tesla – Mid Term Forecast
Today, TSLA is set to record several mid-term signals that could influence its medium- and potentially long-term path. This is not a development we can afford to overlook.
Let’s apply our core analytical tools — candlestick structure, momentum signals, trend dynamics, and Elliott Wave context — to better understand the emerging setup and define the most probable path forward.
CANDLES
Today TSLA flipped two important crosses bearish — the 8/20 EMA on the weekly and the 50/100 on the daily — while price is hovering near the 200 DMA. These crosses are relatively rare for the stock and historically have not been easy to reverse, often requiring weeks or even months to repair.
Adding to the pressure, the February monthly candle confirmed a technical top and closed below the 8 EMA support.
Tesla is now bearish in the short to mid term until proven otherwise. The long-term outlook has shifted to moderately bearish, with a rising risk of turning strongly bearish if follow-through develops.
ELLIOTT WAVE
Mid Term
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the structure leans bearish. Tesla advanced after our last discussion and printed a new ATH in December. However, the five-wave move from the January 2023 low does not qualify as a clean impulse due to overlaps and overall wave character.
Two primary scenarios stand out. The green count assumes a leading diagonal from the January 2023 low, implying a potential return to the level of origin or at least a 50% retracement, roughly in the $300–100 zone. The red count suggests a long-term bearish flag for wave (B) of (II), meaning wave (C) may have already begun, with a target area between $250 and below $100. A strong reversal above the January 2023 low would complicate the structure further and add to the complexity.
On the micro scale, TSLA appears to be developing an impulsive move lower. If the estimates hold, the current wave could target the $250–150 range based on ideal Fibonacci projections.
