Blackrock – Monthly Analysis
BlackRock just froze $1.2 billion in withdrawal requests at its private credit fund, and the stock tumbled. Was it just a fluke, or a deeper technical failure behind the recent decline?
In this monthly review, we apply our standard framework—candlestick analysis, technical indicators, and Elliott Wave structure—to evaluate where BlackRock currently stands and what may come next.
CANDLES
BlackRock’s candle map is a show of desperation: a monthly Bearish Engulfing with the loss of the 8 EMA support, a Falling 3 Methods on the 22D frame, and a weekly loss of the 50 and 100 WMA support in a single week. To put a nail in the coffin, a triple death cross is likely to occur on Monday–Tuesday—50/100, 50/200, and 100/200 DMA. And this is likely just the beginning.
Last week, while preparing charts for the monthly reports, several Elliott Wave structures kept flashing their signals again and again. And here we go.
Elliott Wave
The chart below was posted on March 9, 2025. A year ago, I was contemplating the idea of an Ending Diagonal for BLK due to the unusually structured beginning of wave 5.
A year later, we can consider the ending diagonal concluded.
What we know about Ending Diagonals from Elliott Wave theory is the following. After such a pattern completes, price tends to reverse very sharply and often retraces back to the level where the diagonal began. In our case, that level would be around $503.12, which would represent a decline of roughly 60% from the all-time high.
Considering the length of the structure, the current decline could represent a Cycle, or even a Super Cycle wave (2). Statistically, waves (2) of any degree most commonly retrace between 0.382 and 0.618 of the preceding wave (1), although deeper or more complex retracements are not impossible. A decline of about 60% following the completion of an Ending Diagonal would therefore align well with the typical behavior of wave (2) corrections in Elliott Wave structures.
In other words, the technical implications of the current structure suggest that the recent developments around BLK could carry a much larger price impact than the market may currently expect.
At the same time, the stock is already grossly oversold, which makes a technical bounce highly likely in the near term. The key element to watch will be the character of that bounce. If it unfolds as a corrective move rather than an impulsive reversal, it would strongly suggest that the larger downtrend remains intact and that significantly lower prices could follow.
SUMMARY
BlackRock’s recent plunge reinforces the concerns raised in the February monthly reports, where the Financial sector of the S&P 500 already showed the most bearish technical posture compared to other sectors. The deterioration in BLK’s structure—marked by a Bearish Engulfing on the monthly frame, loss of key moving average supports, and the looming triple death cross—appears to be one of the drivers behind that weak sectoral performance.
As one of the largest and most influential asset managers, BlackRock often acts as a bellwether for the broader financial space. Its sharp technical deterioration may therefore reflect deeper stresses building within the sector. If the current structure continues to unfold as anticipated, BLK could remain a significant drag on financial stocks and potentially reinforce the bearish signals already developing across the sector.
For now, the stock is extremely oversold and a technical bounce remains highly probable. However, the nature of that rebound will be critical. A corrective bounce would support the view that the larger downtrend is only beginning, while an impulsive recovery would be required to challenge the increasingly bearish outlook for both BLK and the broader financial sector.
