$META – Monthly Analysis –
Meta is approaching a technically decisive moment as price action continues to evolve within a complex structure. In this META analysis, we examine the latest technical signals, evaluate momentum and trend dynamics, and outline the key levels that could determine the stock’s next major move.
CANDLES
After closing February with strong bearish candles on the monthly and 2M frames, Meta Platforms tried to mitigate damage at the beginning of March, but the long term bearish odds are too strong for now. As a result, the last two days were likely defining for the remainder of March and, potentially, for several months (if not quarters) ahead.
100-Week Moving Average
META is attempting to break below the 100-week MA for the third time since November. If it succeeds this or next week, the stock could be looking at a considerable loss of value. Historical statistics show that META has lost its 100-week MA only three times before. Each time, the event triggered a bear market, and the stock declined by about 23% in 2018 and 2020 and about 68% in 2022.
If META follows a more moderate path this time, it could find support around the 200 DMA at approximately $470. In a worst-case scenario, the stock could move toward the $200 area from the current $618.
Elliott Waves
Mid Term
In January, I discussed a potential extended ABC correction in red. At this point, the blue path is close to invalidation, and the red path will become primary once META makes a new low below the November low. The ideal ABC correction (A = C) in this case would align with the statistical evaluation for the moderate bearish path above. However, we should remember that wave C often extends beyond the length of wave A.
SUMMARY
META is sitting on the fence. A loss of the 100 WMA will likely trigger a bear market of unknown length and depth. The minimum expected loss would be about 20%.
