Volatility – Weekly Analysis
Volatility Technical Analysis traditionally launches our Weekly Series this weekend and, as usual, sets the tone for the entire series. Using a disciplined blend of technical analytics, candlestick evaluation, Elliott Wave methodology, and classical chart patterns, this series is designed to isolate the signals that matter most and anticipate the shifts that shape market direction. Let’s see what these signals are telling us — and what they may be warning us about.
CANDLES
Weekly
Daily
On Monday, volatility instruments tried to turn the table but failed to capitalize on the initial move. As a result, bulls closed the week with bullish continuation candles on the daily and weekly frames. Bulls also have strong technical support.
Note that we are entering an area of very high volatility, meaning that daily swings for the indices of 2% in each direction should not be surprising.
Overall, the indices and trends remain bullish in the short and mid term until reversed.
Weekly 8/20 EMA
On February 12, I discussed the 8/20 EMA bullish cross and the potential follow-up patterns — you can review it here: https://investingangles.com/9fhl
At this point, I continue to maintain the hypothesis that the VIX is closer to repeating the 2025 pattern.
SUMMARY
From the February monthly:
“After February, the Volatility Index has increased the bullish odds and expanded them to the monthly and 2M scale. There is a high probability that volatility will increase in March. It could also move further up in April, though there is no certainty that it will end April higher than March.”
So far, the Volatility Index is following the forecast, with higher odds of continuing the move upward. At this point, the short-, mid-, and long-term odds remain bullish.
