Palladium – Technical Forecast
Palladium may be entering a decisive phase as multiple bearish signals begin to align across both candlestick structures and Elliott Wave analysis. After showing the first signs of weakness earlier this year, the metal is now developing patterns that suggest the risk of a much deeper decline.
In this report, we examine the latest candlestick signals, evaluate the evolving Elliott Wave structure, and discuss how weakening industrial demand could reinforce the bearish scenario for palladium in the months ahead.
CANDLES
Palladium started to show the first signs of weakness in January, but the last two weeks have strongly elevated bearish short- and mid-term odds for the metal, increasing the probability of a bearish extension into the long-term frames in March. The daily and monthly losses of the respective 100 MA, supported by other technical signals, are very strong warnings. The monthly and quarterly candles are shaping as bearish, or even strongly bearish so far.
ELLIOTT WAVE
Mid Term
After a detailed analysis of the upward wave that Palladium started in August 2024, I concluded that the move was not an impulse. The main obstacle is the length of the pointed section on the chart, which would need to be the longest among the preceding and following waves. Under these conditions, the move from August 2024 to January 2026 could be either a Leading Diagonal for wave 1 in red or wave B, which breaks into waves a, b, and c in blue, with wave c forming an expanding Ending Diagonal.
In both cases, a return to the level of origin, either the 2024 or the 2025 lows, remains a realistic outcome.
The wave that started downward in January 2026 is clearly impulsive. Therefore, the market could be forming either a sharp zigzag abc for wave 2 in red, targeting $1100–1200, or a larger impulse 1–5 for wave C in blue, completing the huge correction that started in 2022 and is better seen on the very long-term chart below. In the case of the blue count, the target would be below $836, possibly around $550.
As charted in May 2023:
SUMMARY
Palladium has recently recorded several bearish signals on the daily, monthly, and quarterly candles, including the loss of the 100 MA on key frames. At the same time, Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the rally from August 2024 to January 2026 was corrective rather than impulsive, opening the door to a deeper decline. The current wave down from January 2026 already shows impulsive characteristics, increasing the probability of a continuation lower, potentially toward the 2024–2025 lows or even below them.
From a fundamental perspective, the bearish technical outlook could be reinforced by weakening industrial demand. Palladium is heavily tied to the automotive sector, and a slowdown in global manufacturing, combined with the gradual shift toward electric vehicles, could reduce demand and amplify the downside pressure already visible in the charts.
