Gold Weekly Analysis
Gold is now down nearly 20% from its peak, approaching official bear market territory. For those who followed our January annual report, this move should come as no surprise—the forces driving the decline were clearly identified, and they extend well beyond geopolitical headlines.
In this Gold Weekly analysis, we break down the evolving structure across multiple time frames, highlight key technical levels and targets, and outline the most probable paths as the metal approaches its next decisive move.
CANDLES
After the Friday’s close, gold is strongly bearish. A Three Black Crows with a loss of the 100 DMA on the daily frames, a strong bearish continuation candle on the weekly with a freshly formed MACD cross signal lower prices ahead. If bulls don’t wake up in the remaining days of March, the monthly close promises to be ugly.
However, the metal has been oversold on the daily and smaller frame. This condition could trigger at least a short term bounce early next week.
Overall, gold is bearish short/mid term with solid odds to extend to the long term frames.
Annual Candles
In the annual analysis, we highlighted that gold was trading well above its annual Bollinger Bands—a condition that typically leads to a return back within the range. This updated chart shows that as the bands have shifted lower, the revised targets now imply a 32–48% decline from the peak. A move toward the 20 EMA, representing roughly a 64% drawdown, should not come as a major surprise, although it would likely unfold over a longer period.
ELLIOTT WAVES
The road map developed perfectly and now we can focus more on a short term picture.
Short Term
Gold has likely completed wave 3, the early signs of which we discussed last week, and may now begin forming wave 4, which is expected to be relatively shallow. The forecasted 8–12% decline during wave 3 materialized, with the metal dropping 10.5% since the previous weekly report.
Once wave 4 concludes, wave 5 could unfold in two ways: either a sharp decline exceeding the length of wave 3 or a prolonged, multi-month grind lower forming an ending diagonal. It is also important to note that the (abc) structure currently tracked on the short-term chart may represent only wave A of a much larger corrective ABC pattern.
SUMMARY
Gold is approaching bear market territory after a nearly 20% decline from the peak, aligning closely with the scenario outlined in our January annual report. The move is driven by structural and technical factors rather than geopolitical developments, with price now reverting from extreme levels above the annual Bollinger Bands. Updated projections suggest a potential 32–48% decline from the top, with a deeper move toward the 20 EMA remaining a longer-term risk.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold likely completed wave 3 of (c), delivering the expected 8–12% drop, and may now be entering a shallow wave 4. The next phase could bring either a sharp wave 5 sell-off or a prolonged decline in the form of an ending diagonal. Importantly, the current (abc) structure may represent only the initial leg of a much larger correction, leaving the broader outlook firmly bearish until a reversal is confirmed.
