Volatility – Weekly Analysis
Volatility is sending a clear message — and those who caught the early signals in February are already on the right side of the move. As our Weekly Series kicks off, this technical breakdown sets the tone for what could be a decisive phase for the markets.
Blending technical analysis, candlestick signals, Elliott Wave structure, and classical chart patterns, we focus on what truly matters — identifying high-probability setups and anticipating the next major shift. The question now: what are the charts revealing, and how much further can this move go?
CANDLES
Weekly
Daily
Last week, we defined the weekly candle patterns as bullish continuation, and the index did not disappoint. The weekly formations effectively negated immediate bearish odds, while Friday’s daily close printed strong bullish candles.
I also noted that “we are entering an area of very high volatility, meaning that daily swings for the indices of 2% in each direction should not be surprising.” This call has now fully materialized.
Overall, the volatility instruments and their trends remain bullish in the short and mid term until reversed.
Weekly 8/20 EMA
On February 12, I discussed the 8/20 EMA bullish cross and the potential follow-up patterns — you can review it here: https://investingangles.com/9fhl
At this point, I continue to maintain the hypothesis that the VIX is closer to repeating the 2025 pattern. From multiple perspectives, the index is closely mirroring the candle and technical formations of the last week of March 2025.
SUMMARY
From the February monthly:
“After February, the Volatility Index has increased the bullish odds and expanded them to the monthly and 2M scale. There is a high probability that volatility will increase in March. It could also move further up in April, though there is no certainty that it will end April higher than March.”
So far, the Volatility Index is tracking this forecast well, with increasing odds of a continued move higher. At this point, the short-, mid-, and long-term outlook remains bullish.
