Coffee – Mid Term Forecast (open study)
Coffee just triggered a major technical signal—and it’s one that even Starbucks management should be watching closely. This setup has been quietly building beneath the surface, and it may now be ready to unfold into a significant move.
In this update, we break down what this signal means, where it could lead, and the key levels to watch as the next phase begins.
CANDLES
This week, coffee delivered an aggressive upside move, pushing price toward the 50 DMA on the daily and flipping the 8/20 EMA into a bullish cross. The weekly closed with a strong, technically supported Bullish Engulfing, signaling a meaningful shift in momentum.
If this strength persists, the 15D frame is likely to turn bullish by midweek, while the monthly is on track to close with a Bullish Engulfing as well. If these signals align, coffee could be setting up for a sustained rally in the months ahead.
ELLIOTT WAVES
After catching a strong rally from June to September 2025, we discussed in September the high probability of an alternative red path, pointing to a larger ABC flat correction. There is now a strong case that this correction has completed, with the commodity potentially shifting into a new impulsive phase higher. At this stage, two classical target areas for wave 5 remain in focus, as outlined on the latest chart.
If the reversal is confirmed—particularly on the monthly frame—the projected upside ranges from 47% to 112% from the current $305 level, with an ideal target near 85%. Such a move would not only impact futures markets but would almost certainly translate into higher consumer prices. Coffee chains, retailers, and suppliers would face increasing input costs, which are typically passed on downstream. This could lead to a noticeable rise in the price of a cup of coffee, potentially triggering a broader ripple effect across related goods and services, especially in sectors sensitive to agricultural inputs and consumer spending habits.
