Tesla – Mid Term Forecast
Tesla is down 26%, a move that is triggering panic for many investors. For those who followed our forecasts and road maps, however, this development should feel well within expectations. Let’s take a look at what may come next for TSLA.
Using our core analytical tools—candlestick structure, momentum signals, trend dynamics, and Elliott Wave context—we assess the emerging setup and outline the most probable path forward.
CANDLES
TSLA continues to build bearish momentum. After recording an 8/20 EMA bearish cross on the weekly and a 50/100 DMA cross on the daily earlier in March, the stock has now lost key support levels, including the 200 DMA and the 50 WMA.
The short- and mid-term frames remain bearish, while the monthly confirmed a reversal in February and is likely to extend those odds in March. The quarterly is on track to close with a Bearish Engulfing. Avoiding this outcome would require a 26%+ rally in the remaining days—an unrealistic scenario. Overall, Tesla remains bearish across all time frames until proven otherwise.
ELLIOTT WAVE
Mid Term
Two primary scenarios remain in focus. The green count points to a leading diagonal from the January 2023 low, opening the door for a move back toward the origin or at least a 50% retracement, roughly in the $300–100 range. The red count, on the other hand, favors a long-term bearish flag for wave (B) of (II), suggesting that wave (C) may already be underway, with a projected target between $250 and below $100. A decisive move above the January 2023 low would complicate the structure further and increase uncertainty.
On the smaller time frames, TSLA is showing characteristics of an impulsive decline. If this structure holds, the current wave could be targeting the $250–150 zone based on typical Fibonacci relationships.
SUMMARY
Tesla continues to build strong bearish momentum after losing key supports, including the 200 DMA and 50 WMA, while maintaining bearish signals across the daily, weekly, and monthly frames. The quarterly is on track for a Bearish Engulfing, reinforcing the broader downside outlook. Overall, TSLA remains bearish across all time frames until a clear reversal is confirmed.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, two main scenarios remain in play: a potential deeper retracement from a leading diagonal structure or the continuation of a larger bearish cycle with wave (C) underway. In the near term, the stock is likely developing an impulsive move lower, with a projected target range of $250–150.
