Gold Daily Update
Gold reached a key technical level this week, briefly dropping below $4222—the downside target we have tracked since the beginning of March. That level now becomes a critical reference point, as today’s signals begin to shape the next move.
In this Gold Weekly analysis, we break down the evolving structure across multiple time frames, assess the significance of this test, highlight key technical levels and targets, and outline the most probable paths as the metal approaches its next decisive move.
CANDLES
Gold formed a strong Bullish Engulfing on the daily frame and now has a chance to repeat the pattern on the 2D tomorrow. If confirmed, this could establish strong bullish momentum and potentially lead to a larger rally.
The key closures remain the weekly and the monthly, with the latter still tracking strongly bearish.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Short Term
While the recent low could be just wave 3 of (c), there is also a possibility that it marked the end of (c), as shown on the chart. The wave formed a clean flag, and if gold develops an impulse of a higher degree from here, we could be looking at an 18–36% rally toward the flag target, as outlined below.
However, if gold fails to form an impulse, a larger ABC correction—discussed in the latest weekly report—remains a valid scenario.
SUMMARY
Gold has lost 26% off the top, and this could mark the end of the entire correction that started in January. There are now two main scenarios on the table: a completed flag with a strong rally ahead, or an extended ABC correction that could unfold over several quarters or even years. The intent is there, but we need confirmation on the weekly and monthly frames by the end of March.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, such a development would imply a completed impulsive wave off the most recent low.
Let’s see how it develops in the remaining days of March.
