Carry Trade – Weekly Overview
The carry trade is back in motion—and the implications are just starting to unfold. With the U.S. Dollar Index strengthening and pressure building across funding currencies, the setup is shifting into a phase where the next move could define the broader macro trend.
Is this the start of a sustained expansion, or the point where momentum begins to fade into consolidation?
This breakdown focuses on what the structure is signaling now—and where the highest-probability path leads next.
CANDLES
Despite global turbulence, the carry trade remains technically constructive across all frames and is on track for a strong bullish closure of March and Q1.
ELLIOTT WAVES
The long-term targets for the USD/JPY pair remain intact. While the development of a larger wave 4 scenario is still possible, its probability has been diminishing following the February close.
Summary
(as discussed on March 6)
The carry trade has recovered from the strong bearish posture seen at the beginning of February. The odds favor continued Dollar strength.
The very long-term outlook remains bullish. Broader structural targets remain intact, and the recent weakness appears corrective within a larger uptrend.
