Dollar Index – Weekly Analysis
The move in the Greenback is no longer a setup — it’s a confirmed trend. Those who acted on our late-January alert are already positioned on the right side, as the U.S. Dollar Index delivers a sharp and technically clean rally.
Now comes the real test. Is this strength just getting started, or is the market approaching a turning point?
As momentum builds and key levels come into focus, this breakdown looks at what the structure is signaling next—and where the highest-probability move lies.
CANDLES
After the healthy bullish consolidation we discussed last week, the U.S. Dollar Index is gaining momentum. A Three White Soldiers on the daily, a confirmed bullish trend on the weekly, and strong odds of forming a Double Bottom on the monthly frame all reinforce the bullish stance for the USD.
The index remains bullish until signaled otherwise.
MACD – Weekly
I continue to view the weekly MACD as a meaningful leading indicator for the U.S. Dollar, and the current technical footprint closely resembles the bottoming process of 2020–2021. As a reminder, DXY rallied 28.5% in 2021–2022 and reached almost $115.
ELLIOTT WAVES
At this stage, there is no substantial evidence to justify a change in the very long-term outlook. In March, the index is tracking toward a long-term bottom.
Road Map
The mid-term roadmap remains unchanged.
Last Wave
U.S. Dollar Index has likely completed wave iv, respecting classical ratios, and is now developing wave v as part of a higher-degree i–v impulse.
SUMMARY
Following last week’s note on strengthening momentum, the U.S. Dollar Index continues to build on its bullish structure. The index is extending higher after consolidation, with price action and momentum confirming the trend across multiple time frames.
March is tracking for a solid bullish close, provided the current momentum holds into the final sessions. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the broader structure remains constructive, with the index likely completing wave iv and developing wave v within a larger impulsive wave 1.
Overall, the technical footprint remains firmly supportive of a bullish bias, with no meaningful signals yet suggesting a reversal.
