Volatility – Weekly Analysis
Volatility is no longer a warning — it’s confirmation. Those who picked up on the signals in February are already positioned on the right side of the move, and the market is now starting to catch up.
As our Weekly Series begins, this breakdown sets the tone for what is shaping into a decisive phase. The structure is unfolding, momentum is shifting, and the key levels are coming into play.
The question now is simple: how much further does this move have to run, and where does the next opportunity emerge?
CANDLES
Weekly
Daily
Absolutely no surprise this week in the volatility space. The index-tracking instruments closed with bullish continuation signals on both the daily and weekly frames, while still avoiding overbought conditions.
We remain in a high-volatility environment, where daily swings of 2% or more in either direction should be expected.
Unless very meaningful changes occur in the final two trading days of March, the monthly signals are on track for brutal bullish closures.
Overall, volatility instruments and their trends remain bullish in the short and mid term until reversed.
Weekly 8/20 EMA
On February 12, I discussed the 8/20 EMA bullish cross and the potential follow-up patterns — you can review it here: https://investingangles.com/9fhl
At this point, I continue to maintain the working hypothesis that the VIX is closer to repeating the 2025 pattern. However, several recent signals suggest that a larger model may be unfolding, possibly aligning with the 2000 or 2008 analogs. The March close will be decisive.
SUMMARY
From the February monthly:
“After February, the Volatility Index has increased the bullish odds and expanded them to the monthly and 2M scale. There is a high probability that volatility will increase in March. It could also move further up in April, though there is no certainty that it will end April higher than March.”
Since then, the VIX has tracked this outlook closely, with volatility expanding in March as anticipated and continuing to build across multiple frames. The follow-through has been consistent, reinforcing the signals outlined in the monthly report.
At this stage, the structure remains intact. The short-, mid-, and long-term outlook continues to favor higher volatility, with no meaningful signals yet suggesting a reversal.
