Tesla – Weekly Analysis
Tesla is down over 27%—and for those who followed our forecasts, this move is unfolding exactly as expected.
Now comes the real test: is this decline approaching exhaustion, or is it only gaining traction?
With pressure building and key levels coming into play, the structure is starting to reveal what may come next.
CANDLES
Tesla continues to build bearish momentum. After losing the 200 DMA and the 50 WMA, the stock is now setting up for a strong bearish closure on both the monthly and quarterly frames. A recovery in the remaining two days appears highly unlikely.
The pressure is not easing — it’s building.
Overall, Tesla remains bearish across all time frames until proven otherwise.
ELLIOTT WAVE
Mid Term
Two primary scenarios remain in focus. The green count points to a leading diagonal from the January 2023 low, opening the door for a move back toward the origin or at least a 50% retracement, roughly in the $300–100 range. The red count, on the other hand, favors a long-term bearish flag for wave (B) of (II), suggesting that wave (C) may already be underway, with a projected target between $250 and below $100. A decisive move above the January 2023 low would complicate the structure further and increase uncertainty.
On the smaller time frames, TSLA is showing characteristics of an impulsive decline. If this structure holds, the current wave could be targeting the $250–150 zone based on typical Fibonacci relationships.
SUMMARY
Tesla continues to build strong bearish momentum after losing key supports, including the 200 DMA and 50 WMA, while maintaining bearish signals across the daily, weekly, and monthly frames. The quarterly is on track for a Bearish Engulfing, reinforcing the broader downside outlook.
The structure is aligning across time frames — and it’s not favoring the bulls.
Overall, TSLA remains bearish across all time frames until a clear reversal is confirmed.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, two main scenarios remain in play: a deeper retracement from a leading diagonal, or the continuation of a larger bearish cycle with wave (C) underway. In the near term, the stock is likely developing an impulsive move lower, with a projected target range of $250–150.
