Carry Trade – Monthly Analysis
The carry trade is back in motion—and the market is starting to react.
With the U.S. Dollar Index strengthening and pressure building across key currencies, the setup is entering a phase that could shape the next major macro move.
Is this the beginning of a sustained expansion, or the moment where momentum starts to stall?
This analysis focuses on what’s unfolding beneath the surface—and where the next move may be heading.
CANDLES
Despite global turbulence, the carry trade remains technically constructive across all timeframes. In March, it further reinforced its long-term bullish stance while reducing the odds of short-term weakness. USD/JPY remains bullish across all frames, supported by a healthy trend and a solid technical backdrop.
ELLIOTT WAVES
The long-term targets for USD/JPY remain intact. While a larger wave 4 scenario is still possible, its probability has been diminishing following the February close and declined further after March.
Summary
The carry trade has fully recovered from the strong bearish posture seen at the beginning of February. In March, it delivered solid bullish signals on the monthly and quarterly frames, pointing to continued Dollar strength.
The very long-term outlook remains bullish, with broader structural targets intact.
