Tesla – Monthly Review
Tesla is down over 28%, with 10% wiped out in March alone—and for those following our forecasts, this move was anticipated.
Now, with fresh signals on the table and key statistics lining up, the real analysis begins.
Let’s dive into the probabilities—and what they reveal about Tesla’s next move.
CANDLES
Tesla continued to build bearish momentum in March. After losing the 200 DMA and the 50 WMA, the stock has now also lost the 8-month EMA. The quarterly frame closed with a Bearish Engulfing, while the monthly likely formed Three Black Crows.
Downside pressure continues to build.
Alongside these very bearish long-term signals, Tesla has begun forming a bearish MACD cross on the monthly in early April. While the official confirmation comes at month-end, the setup already allows for statistical evaluation.
This event has occurred only three times since the IPO, each during major bear markets for the stock. Those periods saw declines ranging from 51% to 75%, averaging around 60% peak to trough. If a similar environment unfolds, Tesla could be targeting the $125–243 range, with an average near $200 and potential support around the 100-month MA.
In other words, with Tesla down only ~28% so far, the downside potential remains substantial if the current structure continues to develop.
Overall, while Tesla is closer to neutral on the short- to mid-term frames, it remains bearish on all timeframes above the weekly.
ELLIOTT WAVE
Mid Term
As discussed earlier, two primary scenarios remain in focus. The green count suggests a leading diagonal from the January 2023 low, opening the door for a move back toward the origin or at least a 50% retracement, roughly in the $300–100 range. The red count favors a long-term bearish flag for wave (B) of (II), implying that wave (C) may already be underway, with a projected target between $250 and below $100. A decisive move above the January 2023 low would further complicate the structure and increase uncertainty.
The blue rectangle, representing targets derived from MACD statistics, sits well within the overlap of the green and red scenarios. This alignment reinforces both the statistical outlook and the projections from other methodologies.
On smaller timeframes, TSLA is showing characteristics of an impulsive decline. If this structure continues to develop, the current wave could be targeting the $250–150 zone based on typical Fibonacci relationships.
SUMMARY
Tesla is building strong bearish momentum across higher timeframes, with multiple long-term signals aligning, including a potential monthly MACD cross and bearish candle structures. While the short- to mid-term outlook is closer to neutral, the broader trend remains firmly bearish.
Two primary scenarios remain in play, both pointing to further downside. The overlap between Elliott Wave projections and MACD-based targets reinforces a wide but consistent target zone, suggesting meaningful room for continuation lower.
On smaller timeframes, the decline is showing impulsive characteristics, with near-term targets in the $250–150 range. Overall, Tesla remains bearish until clear reversal signals emerge.
