Volatility – Weekly Analysis

This week, we reopen the series with a focus on volatility—the signal beneath the noise. In this report, we examine how volatility is evolving, what it reveals about underlying market stress, and why it may be the key driver of the next major move. CANDLES Daily/Weekly Last week, we noted the emergence of bearish momentum on the daily and weekly frames. This week, the instruments confirmed a weekly bearish reversal, printing confirmation signals and breaking below key support levels. At the same time, weekly trends remain bullish, and this resilience is somewhat concerning. Daily trends turned bearish mid-week, and by Friday, the indices formed primarily bearish continuation candles, with only a minor probability of flipping the odds back to bullish. 10/15D Monday–Tuesday trading sessions will be critically important. The 10D frames close on Tuesday and will likely determine the outcome for the mid- to long-term momentum transition. Despite the exceptionally…