Gold Weekly Analysis
When we outlined a potential 18–36% decline in gold on January 4, it drew little attention. Now, with a 26% drop already in place, the focus has shifted from possibility to what comes next.
In this Gold Weekly analysis, we examine the evolving structure across multiple timeframes, highlight key levels and targets, and map the most probable paths as gold approaches its next decisive move.
CANDLES
Gold closed the week with neutral-bearish signals despite a minor advance. The daily is also showing limited upward progress and remains broadly neutral. A notable bearish development occurred on the 10D frame, which likely lost the 8 EMA support while forming a MACD bearish cross.
Overall, gold is closer to neutral in the short to mid term, while bearish momentum continues to build gradually on the long-term frames.
Annual Candles
(no changes in this section)
In the annual analysis, we noted that gold was trading well above its annual Bollinger Bands—a condition that typically resolves with a move back inside the range. That process is now underway. As the bands shift lower, updated targets point to a 32–48% decline from the peak, reflecting an evolving structure and adjusted expectations.
A move toward the 20 EMA, implying a potential ~64% drawdown, should not come as a surprise. While it may sound extreme, this is how extended moves typically unwind—not in a single move, but through a prolonged reversion process.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Gold continued to push higher in a clearly corrective manner. The move can still be interpreted as wave 4 of a larger impulse (c), but its duration is reducing the odds for the blue count and slightly favoring the red scenario.
Clarity between the two is likely to emerge next week. What remains clear is that the current move is corrective, and gold is still expected to explore lower lows—below the March low—one way or another.
SUMMARY
Gold is not signaling an immediate decline and remains undecided in the short term. However, the broader structure points to a slow, prolonged corrective phase, with long-term frames gradually building bearish momentum following extreme overextension.
With signals aligning across annual, quarterly, and monthly timeframes, the risk of a deeper retracement continues to increase. Both technical indicators and Elliott Wave structures support a sustained downside path, likely unfolding gradually with the potential for significantly lower levels over time.
