Tesla – Weekly Analysis
Tesla is down over 30%, with another 6% erased in April—while those who followed our calls remain on the right side of the move.
In this analysis, we break down the probabilities and uncover what they signal for Tesla’s next move.
CANDLES
Tesla continued to build bearish momentum in April. The stock recorded a 50/200 DMA death cross and is trying to break down below the 20-month EMA. If the current momentum is not reversed by the end of April, and stock loses another 6%, the 4M frame threatens a Bearish Engulfing or at least a Dark Cloud Cover which would further elevate the long term bearish odds.
Downside pressure continues to build. The stock is bearish until reversed.
MACD
Alongside these very bearish long-term signals, Tesla has begun forming a bearish MACD cross on the monthly in early April. While the official confirmation comes at month-end, the setup already allows for statistical evaluation.
This event has occurred only three times since the IPO, each during major bear markets for the stock. Those periods saw declines ranging from 51% to 75%, averaging around 60% peak to trough. If a similar environment unfolds, Tesla could be targeting the $125–243 range, with an average near $200 and potential support around the 100-month MA.
In other words, with Tesla down only ~30% so far, the downside potential remains substantial if the current structure continues to develop.
ELLIOTT WAVE
Mid Term
As discussed earlier, two primary scenarios remain in focus. The green count suggests a leading diagonal from the January 2023 low, opening the door for a move back toward the origin or at least a 50% retracement, roughly in the $300–100 range. The red count favors a long-term bearish flag for wave (B) of (II), implying that wave (C) may already be underway, with a projected target between $250 and below $100. A decisive move below the January 2023 low would further complicate the structure and increase uncertainty.
The blue rectangle, representing targets derived from MACD statistics, sits well within the overlap of the green and red scenarios. This alignment reinforces both the statistical outlook and the projections from other methodologies.
On smaller timeframes, TSLA is showing characteristics of an impulsive decline. If this structure continues to develop, the current wave could be targeting the $250–150 zone based on typical Fibonacci relationships.
SUMMARY
Tesla continues to build strong bearish momentum across higher timeframes, with multiple long-term signals aligning, including a potential monthly MACD cross and bearish candle structures.
Two primary scenarios remain in play, both pointing to further downside. The overlap between Elliott Wave projections and MACD-based targets reinforces a wide but consistent target zone, suggesting meaningful room for continuation lower.
On smaller timeframes, the decline is showing impulsive characteristics, with near-term targets in the $250–150 range.
Overall, the stock remains firmly bearish across multiple frames until a counter signal emerges.
