SP500 – Daily Analysis
In today’s Daily Report, we break down the market’s internal mechanics, highlight the signals developing across key timeframes, and identify the levels that could trigger the next decisive move.
CANDLES
If you read the Nasdaq update, bulls are charging toward the goal. The weekly 8/20 EMA crosses are within a few points of being recorded for NQ and SPX, and this is optimistic.
The daily rejected the potential bearish odds from Friday’s close. The 3D formed a combo very close to Three White Soldiers. The weekly is tracking constructively. The only concern today was an unusually strong close, which simultaneously pushed the 1–5-hour frames into overbought territory. Tomorrow has good chances to start with a pullback, and its character is not known yet. If there is no pullback, the situation will worsen technically.
Overall, the index is bullish for tomorrow, with a significant risk of a midday or a larger pullback.
Today, I cannot evaluate the situation from all angles I usually do, as the TradingView platform is experiencing technical issues and could not reliably track SPX and DJI indices, limiting my evaluation of base instruments.
Elliott Waves
Possible Impulse
The technicals prompted an extension for wave 3, which still has a chance for one more subwave upward. The next wave is expected to be wave 4.
The index is approaching the ATH. A new ATH will strongly reduce the odds for the purple count, which remains on the table. If the first impulse off the March lows completes as outlined, or close to it, we would be looking for a consolidating wave (2) in the next few weeks, before wave (3) starts.
SUMMARY
SPX is extending wave 3 off the March lows, with room for one final push higher before transitioning into wave 4. The daily and 3D candles are constructive, and the weekly is approaching a key 8/20 EMA bullish cross, supporting the bullish outlook. However, the closing strong move today has pushed intraday frames into overbought territory, increasing the risk of a near-term pullback.
With the index approaching ATH, a breakout would reduce the odds of the alternative count and confirm the impulsive structure. If wave (1) completes soon as outlined, a broader wave (2) consolidation is expected next, before a higher-degree wave (3) advance.
