SP500 – Daily Analysis

CANDLES

All major indices are at a critical juncture over the next three days. Weekly structures are aligning for Three White Soldiers, with SPX and NQ already marginally recording 8/20 EMA bullish crosses. The daily, 10D (strong Inside Up), and lower frames are all bullish, suggesting strong upside momentum if these conditions hold.

The main risk is extreme overbought conditions on hourly frames, making a pullback highly likely. If shallow, it would be constructive; if deeper, it could disrupt the weekly bullish structure and possibly revert the 8/20 crosses. Overall, the outlook remains bullish, with a high risk of a near-term pullback.

Elliott Waves

Possible Impulse

Wave 3 has extended 1.618× of wave 1, a classical Fibonacci extension. Wave 4 could start at any moment, and the main focus will be on its character and structure. Note that a move below the target rectangle would be the first alert.

If the first impulse off the March lows completes as outlined (waves 1-5), or close to it, we would be looking for a consolidating wave (2) in the next 3-6 weeks, before wave (3) starts.

The index is very close to ATH. A new ATH will strongly reduce the odds for the purple count, which remains on the table. If the index does not make an ATH, it risks forming either a Triple Top or a Head and Shoulders, as better viewed on a larger frame chart. There are very many high stakes in the next three days.

SUMMARY

SPX remains bullish with strong alignment across frames, including weekly Three White Soldiers potential and a marginal 8/20 EMA bullish cross. Wave 3 has reached the classical 1.618 extension, and the index is approaching ATH, where a breakout would reduce the odds of the alternative count.

At the same time, intraday conditions are heavily overbought, increasing the risk of a pullback. Wave 4 could begin at any moment, and its structure and depth will be key, as the next few days carry high stakes for confirming continuation or introducing larger patterns on higher frames.