Dollar Index – Weekly Analysis

CANDLES

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closed the week with a bearish signal on the weekly, but consolidated on the daily. The odds are close to 50/50, with technical support evenly split.

It appears that the mid-/long-term decision may be postponed until the end of the month.

Overall, the index remains neutral in the short term and slightly bearish in the mid term, while the long-term outlook continues to favor the upside.

MACD – Weekly

I continue to view the weekly MACD as a meaningful leading indicator for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and the current technical footprint closely resembles the 2020–2021 bottoming process.

However, DXY breached below the 50 WMA support this week. If the move is confirmed next week, we will have to move away from this scenario replicating the 2020–2021 rally.

ELLIOTT WAVES

At this stage, there is no substantial evidence to justify a change in the very long-term outlook. In March, the index possibly formed a long-term bottom.

Road Map

The mid-term roadmap remains unchanged.

Last Wave

After completing an impulse up, marked as wave (i), U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is possibly developing wave (ii) or wave a of (ii). A new lower low below the January low would invalidate this scenario.

SUMMARY

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains mixed: the weekly printed a bearish signal, while the daily is consolidating, leaving short-term odds neutral with evenly split technical support. The index also breached the 50 WMA, and a confirmation next week would weaken the analogy to the 2020–2021 bottoming structure, despite the weekly MACD still suggesting a potential base.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, DXY likely completed wave (i) and is developing wave (ii) or wave a of (ii). A new lower low below January would invalidate this scenario. Overall: short term neutral, mid term slightly bearish, long term still favoring upside, with the larger decision likely pushed toward month-end.