DJT Index – Monthly Analysis
After our November 22 call, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has gained a solid 40%. The key question now is whether this advance remains sustainable or if the index is approaching a pause—or even a corrective phase.
In this monthly update, we assess the index through a long-term technical lens, focusing on trend structure, momentum, and broader cycle positioning to determine where Transportation stands and what it may signal for the broader market.
CANDLES
Following a very constructive close to 2025, the Dow Jones Transportation Average continued a strong rally, shaking off a bearish attack in March. However, the daily, weekly, and monthly frames have simultaneously entered areas of heightened risk. A pullback is due, and its size and character will shape the April monthly close.
At this stage, DJT remains bullish across all timeframes, with a very high risk of a sharp pullback.
Elliott Waves + Flag
At the end of November 2025, I discussed the potential completion of a long-term structure—a two-year flag, or rectangle—also reflected in the semiannual candlestick behavior. Since then, the index has advanced about 40%, reaching the target, and I treat the move as the completion of wave iii of 3.
I have made minor updates to the chart, providing a prospective target for wave iv—a pullback of 15–20% from the current level. If DJT falls more, it would be a very concerning signal, with potential invalidation of the impulsive wave structure.
SUMMARY
DJT remains bullish across all timeframes after a ~40% rally from the November call, completing a major target and likely finishing wave iii of 3. However, daily, weekly, and monthly frames are now in high-risk zones, with a pullback due.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, a wave iv correction of ~15–20% is expected and would be normal. A deeper decline would be concerning and could threaten the impulsive structure.
